Where can your product go on TikTok Shop in 6 months?
A free six-month GMV forecast in three scenarios, live as you type.
Category
Not sure / other
What the customer actually pays after discounts, not the list price. Units are GMV divided by this, so a list price would overstate units and every cost per unit.
Everything ever posted. Old videos keep selling, so this sets how mature the account is.
From your GMV Max dashboard. If you enter it, the forecast starts from your real number instead of our estimate.
We post 560 videos in month 1, rising to 3,000 by month 6 — our standard cadence.
New videos posted each month drive the forecast: GMV, ad efficiency and the shift from paid to organic all follow from them. A brand can’t estimate this before starting, so it’s set to the cadence we run.
Fine-tune (optional)
Own site, Amazon, wholesale.
Creator commission
What a creator earns when the sale came from an ad you paid for. It is lower than their usual rate, and as ads carry more of your sales, more of them pay this rate.
Your public rate. Any creator can pick up the product and post without being asked.
Creators you approach directly, and agency partners who post for you. The highest rate, and usually your biggest single channel.
Your six-month forecast
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Six-month trajectory
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Directional estimates calibrated against settled MediaLabs account data. Real outcomes vary by execution, product fit and platform changes.
Pick your category to see how your market compares.
- Target ROI is a setting
- It’s the bar you set on the GMV Max campaign, not a result: below it, the campaign won’t spend. How high a bar you can hold depends on how many new videos feed it, so the ad budget doesn’t grow in step with GMV.
- Video cadence
- A new brand is modelled at 560 new videos in month 1, rising to 3,000 by month 6: the cadence we run. If you’re already selling, the forecast uses your own numbers.
- Platform fees
- TikTok’s 6% referral fee plus 3.5% for Smart Promotion, on net sales.
- Shipping & fulfilment
- Fulfilled by TikTok typically costs $4.14–$4.80 a unit, all in. Leave it blank and profit leaves shipping out.
- Earned media value
- The views your creators bring that you don’t pay for, priced at an $18 CPM. It’s a media value, not revenue, and isn’t in profit.
- Amazon halo
- Selling on TikTok Shop tends to lift your other channels, Amazon most of all. It’s shown as a range when you enter revenue on other channels. It isn’t revenue in this forecast and isn’t in profit.
- Scenarios
- Conservative trims video output and sales per video: the floor you’d still expect to clear. Realistic is our central case. Viral assumes one video breaks out.
- Market adjustment
- Pick a category and we compare its TikTok Shop US data (how much sells through video and creators, how crowded it is, and where your price sits) with the average TikTok Shop category, then nudge GMV per video up or down within a capped range. It applies to new brands only.
$500M+
Creator-Driven GMV
3,000+
Vetted Creators
150+
Brand Partners
35B+
Views Driven
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We've scaled 150+ brands on TikTok Shop and moved $500M+ in creator-driven GMV. Book a 30-minute call and we'll pressure-test this forecast against your actual product, margins, and category — pick whatever scenario fits.
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