New videos posted per month is the driver. GMV, ad efficiency and the shift from paid to organic all follow from output and the library it builds.

TikTok Shop — six-month forecast

Six-month projection · all three scenarios shown

Product

Avg selling price ($) iWhat the customer actually pays, after your discounts and promos — not the struck-through list price. This is what the category default (AOV) means. Units are GMV divided by this, so entering a list price here would overstate your unit count and every per-unit cost with it.

Landed COGS ($)

Shipping & fulfilment ($/unit) iEverything it costs to get one unit to the customer — pick, pack, packaging and last-mile — as a single per-unit figure. On Fulfilled by TikTok that is one all-inclusive fee, so there is no separate 3PL charge to add. Shipping itself nets to about two cents a unit: TikTok's incentive and the customer's contribution cancel out. For reference: our two settled accounts pay $4.14 and $4.80 a unit; TikTok's card starts at $3.58 for the lightest tier and climbs with weight.

Brand context

Monthly revenue on other channels ($)

Own site, Amazon, wholesale.

Commission rates

GMV Max ads commission (%) iA reduced rate the creator earns when the order came from an ad you paid for. Their content was used, but your ad dollars found the buyer — not their organic reach — so their cut drops from the standard rate. This is the one that matters most: as ads take over, more and more GMV pays this instead of the full collab rate, and the blend falls toward it. Settled at 8% cold, 10% mature.

Open collab (%) iYour public rate. Any creator can pick the product up and post without being asked, so this is a standing offer to the whole marketplace. Small share of GMV in practice — under 5% on both accounts we measured.

Targeted collab / agency (%) iCreators you approach directly, plus agency partners who promote on your behalf. The highest rate, because you are competing for specific creators — and the biggest single channel: it carries 55% of a cold start's GMV and 34% of a mature account's.

Video output

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Directional estimates calibrated against settled MediaLabs account data. Real outcomes vary by execution, product fit and platform changes.

Where can your product go on TikTok Shop in 6 months?

Product

Brand context

Your account today

Commission rates

Video output

Six-month trajectory

Monthly P&L breakdown

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